The Risks of Scientific Gerontocracy

While much has been written about the problem of information overload in news and social media, little attention has been paid to its consequence in science. Scientific literature, however, has witnessed decades of exponential growth, to the point that the publications of the last twenty years now constitute 60% of all academic literature. This information overload is not without consequence. Our analysis reveals that, unlike other cultural products, scientific publications face unique challenges: the decreasing proportion of papers capturing large shares of researchers' attention and the slow turnover of influential papers lead to a disproportionate prominence of established works, resulting in stagnation and aging of scientific canons. To determine whether scientific hypergrowth is responsible for such ``gerontocratization of science'', we propose a generative model of paper citations based on random discovery and cumulative advantage, with a varying number of new papers each year. Our findings show that, as exponential growth intensifies, gerontocratization appears and becomes increasingly pronounced. Recognizing and understanding this mechanism is hence essential for developing targeted strategies to counteract this trend and promote a balanced and healthy renewal of scientific canons (https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.00788).